Consumer Spending in 2026: What It Means for Commercial Real Estate
Consumer spending remains one of the most important forces shaping the U.S. economy—and in 2026, the way consumers are spending may be just as important as how much they are spending.
Despite continued concerns surrounding inflation, interest rates and economic uncertainty, Americans have continued to spend. The Congressional Budget Office projects real consumer spending to increase approximately 1.8% in 2026. More recent data shows continued growth as well, with U.S. personal consumption expenditures increasing in both June and July.
But beneath those numbers is a consumer who has become increasingly selective.
That shift has important implications not only for retailers, but also for companies occupying office space and the commercial real estate decisions they make.
Consumers Are Still Spending—But More Intentionally
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, retail and food service sales in July 2026 were approximately $763.6 billion, 5.0% higher than July 2025. At the same time, July sales declined 0.6% from the previous month, illustrating some of the month-to-month volatility businesses continue to face.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve has also reported a noticeable “flight to value,” with consumers increasingly favoring value-oriented purchases while luxury dining and experiences have remained relatively resilient. Restaurants have reported consumers spending less per visit even as traffic has remained relatively steady.
In other words, the consumer has not disappeared. They have become more discerning.
For businesses, that distinction matters.
What This Means for Retail Real Estate
Consumer spending ultimately helps determine which retailers expand, which locations perform and how much rent a business can realistically support.
In an environment where customers are more selective, simply being in a growing market may not be enough. Retailers have to evaluate who the customer is, how frequently they visit, what they are willing to spend and whether a particular location makes financial sense for the business.
This can make site selection increasingly important.
A retailer may benefit more from a smaller, highly visible location near the right customer base than from a larger space with weaker traffic. Restaurants may place greater emphasis on access, parking and surrounding daytime population. Service-oriented businesses may prioritize proximity to rooftops and household growth rather than traditional retail traffic alone.
The real estate has to support the business model—not the other way around.
Interestingly, retail real estate itself has remained relatively resilient. NAR reported retail vacancy of approximately 4.3% in July, with general retail continuing to lead absorption.
That creates an interesting dynamic: consumers may be more price-conscious, but well-positioned retail space can still be competitive.
Consumer Spending Matters to Office Tenants, Too
The connection between consumer spending and office real estate may be less obvious, but it is equally important.
Businesses ultimately lease office space based on expectations for revenue, employment and future growth. When customers become cautious, companies often become cautious as well.
That can influence decisions such as:
Whether to expand or consolidate
How much square footage to lease
Whether to renew or relocate
How much capital to invest in a new office
Whether to commit to a longer lease term
Which amenities are actually worth paying for
For companies directly tied to consumer demand—marketing firms, financial services companies, professional services firms, technology companies and corporate headquarters among them—changes in customer spending can eventually affect hiring and space requirements.
The 2026 office market is already reflecting a more selective environment. NAR reports that office demand continues to stabilize, but improvement has been concentrated heavily in Class A properties while Class B and C buildings remain under greater pressure.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve has observed a similar trend across the Southeast, reporting that demand has outpaced supply for Class A office space as companies continue a broader “flight to quality.”
Companies may be cautious about taking more space, but many are willing to pay for better space.
Real Estate Decisions Should Follow the Business
One of the biggest mistakes a company can make is evaluating commercial real estate independently from its broader business strategy.
A retail lease is not simply a question of rent per square foot. An office renewal is not simply a question of whether the landlord will offer a lower rate.
Occupancy costs have to be evaluated against revenue, workforce needs, customer behavior, future growth and the alternatives available in the market.
For a retailer, paying a higher rent in the right location may produce significantly better results than choosing a less expensive location with weaker demographics or visibility.
For an office tenant, relocating to a higher-quality building could potentially improve recruitment, retention and employee utilization—even if the rental rate is higher. Conversely, a company experiencing slower growth may benefit from reducing its footprint, restructuring its lease or negotiating greater flexibility.
That is where commercial real estate strategy becomes more than finding available space.
Looking Ahead
Consumer spending in 2026 is not necessarily signaling that businesses should stop expanding. Instead, it is reinforcing the importance of being strategic.
Consumers are still spending. Businesses are still growing. Retailers are still opening locations, and companies are still signing office leases.
But both consumers and businesses are becoming more selective about where their money goes.
For commercial tenants, that makes understanding the market, negotiating the right lease structure and selecting space that supports the company's long-term objectives increasingly important.
At Wildmor Advisors, we help businesses evaluate their real estate from the tenant's perspective—considering not just the space itself, but how each decision impacts operating costs, flexibility and long-term business goals.
Whether you are evaluating a new location, approaching a lease renewal or reconsidering your current footprint, having the right market information can help turn real estate from a fixed expense into a strategic business decision.
Wildmor Advisors
Tenant Representation | Commercial Real Estate Advisory